Driver-Based Forecasting for a Business Sale
Driver-based forecasting builds a sale projection from units, price, utilization and retention. See driver trees for a manufacturer and a services firm.
Base, Upside and Downside Cases in Sale Projections
Scenario analysis for a sale: what moves between base, upside and downside cases, how to label assumptions and how lenders and buyers use the downside.
Management Case vs Buyer Case in a Business Sale
How a buyer turns a management case into its own case: the adjustments it makes, a reconciliation of the gap, and how sellers defend assumptions with evidence.
Revenue Forecasting Methods for a Business Sale
How to forecast revenue for a sale: backlog conversion, pipeline weighting, recurring revenue and churn, and cohorts, with the evidence buyers accept.
Sale Forecast: Margins, Capex and Working Capital
How to forecast gross margin, operating expenses, capital spending and working capital in a sale model so a buyer can follow the path from EBITDA to free cash flow.
How Buyers Test Financial Projections in Diligence
How buyers evaluate financial projections in a sale: the bridge from LTM, forecast accuracy, backlog and pipeline checks, customer calls, capacity and sensitivities.
Hockey Stick Projections: Sale Forecast Mistakes
The forecast mistakes that cost sellers credibility, from hockey-stick growth to margins with no cause, with what a buyer concludes from each and the fix.
KPIs Buyers Ask For in Due Diligence, by Model
The KPIs buyers request in diligence for manufacturers, distributors, services, recurring revenue and consumer brands, with definitions and reporting rules.
Sell-Side Quality of Earnings Report: Scope, Timing
What a sell-side quality of earnings report covers, when an owner should commission it, who should perform it and how to use it in the CIM and with buyers.
Quality of Earnings Findings That Reduce Price
The quality of earnings findings that most often lower a sale price, such as rejected add-backs and cut-off errors, with how each appears and how to pre-empt it.
How a Seller Manages Due Diligence: Tracker and Q&A
How a seller runs due diligence: one point of contact, a request tracker, staged disclosure, a Q&A log and response discipline while the business keeps performing.
Proof of Cash: Testing Revenue Against the Bank
A proof of cash reconciles bank deposits and disbursements to reported revenue and expenses. See how buyers run it, what the gaps reveal and how a seller prepares.
Debt-Like Items in M&A: What Reduces Your Proceeds
Which debt-like items reduce proceeds in a business sale, such as deferred revenue, deposits, accrued bonuses and owner loans, and how each side argues them.
Customer Due Diligence in a Business Sale
How buyers run customer due diligence: contract terms, retention by cohort, pricing history, credits and disputes, and the customer calls that test revenue.
Revenue Recognition Due Diligence: What Buyers Test
How buyers test when revenue is recorded in a sale: cut-off, bill-and-hold, percentage of completion, deferred revenue, rebates, channel stuffing and warning signs.
Inventory Due Diligence: Counts, Costing, Reserves
How buyers test inventory in a sale: physical counts and roll-forwards, costing and capitalized overhead, obsolescence reserves, consigned goods and shrink.
Legal Due Diligence Checklist for a Business Sale
What buyer counsel reviews in a sale: ownership records, change-of-control clauses, IP assignments, permits, litigation and insurance, plus a seller clean-up list.
Owner Compensation Add-Back: Replacement Salary
How to restate owner pay for EBITDA: price each role the owner fills at market cost, then treat bonuses, distributions, benefits and family members on payroll.
Personal Expenses as Add-Backs in a Business Sale
Which personal expenses paid by the company buyers accept as add-backs: vehicles, travel, meals, insurance, club dues and phones, and the proof they expect.
Related-Party Rent Adjustment to EBITDA
How to adjust EBITDA for rent paid to an owner's real estate entity: restate to market rent, evidence it, set lease terms and decide what to do with the building.